基本原则
研究从物理约束和真实交易开始：功率、材料、良率、认证、交付周期、订单和监管节点。公司宣传可以提供线索，但不能单独证明市场已经形成。
- 事实、公司主张和个人推断分别表达。
- 尽量链接原始文件，不引用二手摘要代替证据。
- 技术可行不等于商业可行，合作不等于收入。
- 每篇文章必须写出反证条件和下一项验证节点。
- 不提供个性化证券买卖建议。
来源等级
监管文件、政府数据库、标准组织、同行评审论文、法院和招标记录。用于建立关键事实。
财报、SEC文件、投资者会议、技术文档、产品手册和官方公告。用于确认公司行为，同时标注利益立场。
具名行业专家、专业媒体、研究机构和现场报告。用于补充背景或交叉验证。
社交媒体、论坛和匿名讨论。只用于发现问题，不单独支撑公开结论。
首个研究模板
- 一句话核心判断和置信度。
- 问题背后的物理或经济约束。
- 新变化如何改变产业价值链。
- 首批公司观察名单及其真实证据。
- 可能证明判断错误的条件。
- 未来6至18个月的验证里程碑。
- 完整来源和每项来源的局限。
更新与纠错
文章保留发布日期和最近更新时间。出现重大事实错误时直接更正并说明；后续证据推翻原判断时，不删除旧结论，而是增加更新记录。
研究内容仅用于一般信息和教育，不构成投资、法律或税务建议。读者应独立核实资料，并根据自身情况作出决定。
Principles
Research begins with physical constraints and real transactions: power, materials, yield, qualification, lead times, orders and regulatory milestones. Company promotion can create a lead, but cannot prove that a market already exists.
- Facts, company claims and personal inference are labelled separately.
- Primary documents are linked wherever possible.
- Technical feasibility is not commercial viability; partnership is not revenue.
- Every note states falsifiers and the next verification milestone.
- No personalised recommendation to buy or sell securities.
Source tiers
Regulatory filings, government datasets, standards bodies, peer-reviewed papers, court and procurement records.
Financial reports, SEC filings, investor events, technical documents, product materials and official announcements, with incentives noted.
Named industry experts, specialist media, research institutions and field reporting for context and cross-checking.
Social media, forums and anonymous discussion may identify a question but cannot support a public conclusion alone.
Research template
- One-sentence thesis and confidence.
- The physical or economic constraint.
- How the change moves value through the supply chain.
- An initial company watchlist with verified evidence.
- Conditions that would falsify the thesis.
- Verification milestones over the next 6–18 months.
- Complete sources and their limitations.
Corrections and updates
Each note keeps its publication and latest-update dates. Material factual errors are corrected and disclosed. If later evidence overturns a thesis, the original conclusion remains visible with an update.
The research is for general information and education only. It is not investment, legal or tax advice.