Latest · Research 002
最新研究
Latest research note
带着电源来：AI数据中心正在从用电客户变成能源项目
Bring your own power: AI data centres are becoming energy projects
真正稀缺的不是年度电量，而是在指定地点、指定时间取得可靠电力。并网规则、变压器、现场发电和成本分摊正在决定算力部署顺序。
The scarce input is reliable power at a specific place and time. Grid rules, transformers, onsite generation and cost allocation are deciding the order of AI deployment.
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八层产业链，不把GPU当成全部
Eight layers beyond the GPU
每一层都按同一套问题展开：物理约束是什么，价值向谁迁移，什么证据能证明收入，以及什么会让判断失效。
Each layer asks the same questions: what is physically constrained, where value migrates, what proves revenue, and what would falsify the thesis.
Method
如何形成判断
How the judgment is formed
从物理约束开始
Start with physical constraints
功率、热量、带宽、材料和交付周期，比市场口号更难被绕开。
Power, heat, bandwidth, materials and lead times are harder to hand-wave than market narratives.
寻找可验证的价值迁移
Find verifiable value migration
判断新架构改变了谁的订单、成本、议价能力和进入壁垒。
Track whose orders, costs, pricing power and barriers change under the new architecture.
提前写下反证
Write the falsifier first
如果没有量产、客户部署或收入转化，技术合作不等于投资结果。
Without production, customer deployment or revenue conversion, a technical partnership is not an investment outcome.